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HOW NOT TO DRAFT BASKETBALL

The basketball draft is the most important of any fantasy sport. There are never as many surprise players for you to pick up during the year as there are in baseball and football. And if you have a really amazing draft, you can probably just sit back and coast your way to victory, something that would be impossible in other sports. I’ve finished 2nd and I’ve finished 2nd-to-last in previous basketball seasons, and these are the things I’ve learned about drafting basketball. Follow these five “donts” about drafting basketball and I guarantee your team won’t finish last.

1) Never come to a draft unprepared
Coming to a draft without first doing a little research is guaranteeing a sucky finish for your team. I don’t care how much you follow basketball, or whether you can dribble between your legs, or even if your daddy is Mike Dunleavy Sr. There’s really no excuse for not preparing, either. “But my girlfriend’s in town and wanted to have sex…” You can have sex anytime; the basketball draft only happens once a year. She’ll understand.

The consequences? Huge. You’re amazed that Antonio McDyess slipped to you in the 3rd round, and you eagerly click the “draft player” button, only to hear 10 minutes of uncontrolled laughter by the rest of your league. If you’d just spent 5 minutes reading through an injury report, you’d know to avoid such marquee names as McDyess, Bibby, Camby, Odom, Brandon, and Sprewell until the late rounds, if at all. Try winning your basketball league sans your 3rd round pick. All those suckers who drafted Grant Hill last year can tell you it’s extremely difficult.

2) Avoid drafting players on deep teams
For the same reasons you avoid wide receivers from the St. Louis Rams and Denver Broncos (too many guys, not enough touches), avoid drafting ballers from Sacramento, Portland, Dallas, Memphis (I’m not kidding), and the Clippers. Because there are so many quality players vying for a fixed number of minutes, everyone’s stats will take a slight hit. Some sucker always overrates these players because they play for sexy teams, and will draft them slightly too early. Don’t let yourself be the sucker.

A parallel to this rule is to avoid drafting a positional player from a team deep at that position. Examples include big men from Atlanta, guards from Washington, and swingmen from Phoenix.

3) Don’t focus on last year’s stats after round 5
In the early rounds of the draft, don’t make too many risky picks. The top players are consistent year-to-year, and form an elite group which usually lasts until somewhere near Rounds 4-6, depending on the size of your league. After that, you’re left with a bunch of mediocre suckmasters who are all approximately the same. To wit, it’s hard to get excited over choosing among Alvin Williams, Vin Baker, and Dale Davis for your next pick.

When you’re faced with this decision, do yourself a favor and throw away last year’s stat sheet. Players #50-100 last year were all extremely close together last year in terms of fantasy production, so looking at last year’s stats won’t help you anymore than asking your Ouija board. Instead, focus on trends. Who stepped up their game at the end of the season when given more PT? Who are the young players who should improve with NBA experience? Who switched teams and will now get more shots and PT?

As an example, if you were drafting exclusively using last season’s stats, you wouldn’t take Eddie Griffin until the 12th round. But any moron knows he’s gonna improve remarkably this year with increased playing time and a year of NBA experience. The moral of this story is: in the middle rounds, you’re not looking for players who will produce like a middle round player. You’re looking for the players who will jump up into that elite category…the next Dirk Nowitzki or Pau Gasol. Don’t be a buffoon…trash the stat sheet.

4) Don’t overly concern yourself with positional eligibility Okay…so you get to the 8th round and you still don’t have a point guard. You can (A) hit the PANIC button and jump on the next best little guy available, or (B) have confidence in your ability to trade for a good PG or find a sleeper in the late rounds, and instead take the best available player regardless of position.

This is probably the most valuable piece of advice in this column: always draft the best player. Don’t settle for a lesser, suckier player just to fill an empty roster spot. Yahoo gives very generous position eligibility for players, with many players being eligible at multiple positions, so 9 times out of 10 you’ll never run into a problem anyway. But if you do find yourself short a player, that means someone else has an excess, and you can always work out a deal later on.

Along these same lines, don’t overpay for centers. Once the top guys are gone, don’t force yourself to draft Juwan Howard or Raef LaFrentz in the 4th round just because you haven’t drafted a center yet. There are a lot of serviceable centers that you can pick up in the later rounds. Stick with the best-player strategy, and your team will thank you later.

5) Never draft sober
I’m actually serious here. It takes balls to make that one risky pick, balls many of us don’t have when we’re sober. It’s easy to settle for the safe pick, the established veteran. But sometimes that preseason gamble will vault your team into championship contention. Darius Miles over Eddie Jones, Michael Jordan, and Glenn Robinson? Unthinkable when sober, but a definite possibility when buzzed, a possibility which could pay dividends many times over.

So, make sure to crack open a brew or two before your draft to give you that risk-taking edge. Just don’t overdo it, or you might end up with Carlos Boozer on your team.

 
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